Iranian Journal of Veterinary Medicine

Iranian Journal of Veterinary Medicine

ASF Risk Factors and Economic Impact in East Manggarai: Cross Sectional Study

Document Type : Original Articles

Authors
1 School of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
2 Animal Biomedical Sciences Study Program, Postgraduate School, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
10.22059/ijvm.2026.417649.1006151
Abstract
African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease with high mortality, causing a significant risk for small-scale pig farming systems. ASF outbreak was firstly reported in Manggarai region of Indonesia in 2019, and no studies have specifically investigated the risk factors associated with ASF occurrence or the economic impact of the disease in East Manggarai Regency. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with suspect-ASF occurrence and to evaluate the economic impact of ASF outbreaks on small-scale pig farms in East Manggarai Regency, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia, during 2024–2025. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 200 small-scale pig farmers through a two-stage sampling approach. Data were collected through structured interviews using a validated questionnaire to identify ASF-associated risk factors and assess the disease's economic impact, including both direct and indirect losses. The study revealed that 56.5% of respondents had experienced supect-ASF outbreaks on their farms. Multivariate logistic regression identified poor biosecurity (OR=2.181; 95% CI=1.133–4.197; p=0.020) and poor waste and carcass management (OR=2.708; 95% CI=1.420–5.166; p=0.002) as significant risk factors for suspect-ASF occurrence. The estimated economic loss attributable to ASF in East Manggarai Regency during 2024–2025 period was IDR 3,737,915,000, with livestock mortality accounting for the largest share (82.6% of the total economic loss). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the estimated economic losses were most sensitive to changes in boar prices, followed by sow prices, piglet prices, and mortality rates. Overall, the findings suggest that poor biosecurity and poor waste and carcass management were the primary risk factors associated with suspect-ASF occurrence in East Manggarai Regency, and that suspect-ASF outbreaks resulted in substantial economic losses, primarily driven by high livestock mortality.
Keywords


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 04 November 2026